Some people seem permanently disposed towards wallowing in the myriad of bad news that appears to be served up on a minute-by-minute or hour-by-hour basis from the phalanx of 24/7 media that we are all now subjected to.
I wouldn’t call myself a lover of classical music but I’m much more willing these days to come down to breakfast and switch on Classical FM for a moment’s respite from the litany of less-than-positive news that the breakfast news and radio channels tend to serve up at the same time.
This might also come from a perspective of mine which is somewhat cynical about why ‘bad news’ dominates – I think we’re all aware of what is deemed to put proverbial bums on seats when it comes to the news and it’s not putting a positive spin on things. Hence, why we seem to get a lot from one end of the scale.
And yet a large part of me continues to be incredibly positive, particularly when we put it into a market context, and specifically a mortgage market context which we all work within.
Look, I know Covid/the pandemic/lockdown has not been a good experience for many particularly for those who have lost loved ones but, as we stand with vaccinations and boosters seeming to do the job, there is a very good chance we’ll all survive and get through this in fairly decent shape even if we are hit with a new variant.
From an economic perspective it’s also important to realise that this is far from the ‘end times’; indeed, you would argue with some credibility that the mortgage and housing markets have been very positive places to be, over the course of the last year and half.
We are about as far from a Credit Crunch situation as it is possible to get, and with demand remaining strong, from both a borrower and lender appetite perspective, advisers will hopefully have been able to pick up a large number of opportunities and utilised our highly-competitive market to source excellent products and services.
Looking at this from a macro-economic perspective, it’s of course not all rosy. There are ‘holes’ in every country’s economy, because of the decisions that needed to be taken, however the UK, for example, is nowhere near as bad as some. And our post-lockdown recovery appears to be moving at a much faster pace than others, even with the current Omicron situation.
We are not in a perfect situation of course, but that’s because there’s no such thing as one. For example, some people look at the current supply-chain issues and think the fact they’ve not been able to buy their favourite packet of crisps is a cause to go ballistic and/or suggest it’s some kind of nationwide economic meltdown. It’s not. There is enough food and drink to be bought – not having those crisps might be slightly annoying but it’s no worse than that, and we could have a situation which is way, way worse.
Fundamentally, our economy is in pretty rude health. As we do at least twice a year, we at Fleet – along with some of our partners – hear from Savvas Savouri, chief economist and partner at UK hedge fund manager, Toscafund Asset Management, who always comes armed with plenty of food for thought and tends to be able to show where the positivity lies for our economic health.
In terms of the UK economy, there is much to be positive about. The job situation is a case in point with notable job ‘hotspots’ being focused in the Midlands and the North of the country, due to the increase in warehousing/logistic businesses needing to be based there. Are we at full employment? There is a good argument to say yes, given the level of vacancies available.
Some believe this, in itself, is a cause for worry, but the outlook is far brighter than that. Sav argues with some force that up to 750,000 people in Europe, who are able to return, will begin to do so as Covid allows/eases, and a lot of these vacancies will be filled. They will be currently sitting in economies which are not performing and they will return to the UK for those jobs and wage growth, plus of course the likelihood that the pound will continue to improve against the euro.
Overall, if we all we hear is ‘bad news’ then the perception will be that everything is six feet under. That’s not the case at all. There is much to be positive about and 2022 is a year which is to be welcomed not feared. Of that I am certain.
Bob Young is CEO at Fleet Mortgages