Gross mortgage lending in November totalled an estimated £13.0 billion, with the monthly figure showing its fourth consecutive year-on-year rise, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).
This is 5% higher than in October, and 13% higher than in November 2010.
The lender body now expects gross lending in 2011 to total £138 billion, with net lending of £9 billion. For 2012, the CML’s new central forecast is for £133 billion of gross lending and £5 billion of net lending, representing the weaker economic backdrop that now seems likely.
The CML continues to expect the bulk of the negative effects in the housing market of wider economic uncertainty to manifest through a continuing low level of housing transactions. While an estimated 852,000 transactions are likely to have taken place in 2011, the CML anticipates fewer transactions next year with a central forecast of 825,000.
The CML also expects the increasing pressures on the household sector to unwind some of the improvements in mortgage arrears and repossessions experienced over the past two years. The central forecast is for 45,000 repossessions next year, up from an estimated 37,000 this year but still fewer than the 2009 figure, and far lower than in the downturn of the 1990s.
CML chief economist Bob Pannell said: “The weak state of the wider economy and household finances creates a challenging and highly uncertain backdrop for the housing and mortgage markets. Despite the fact that activity levels have already been subdued for several years