Latest estimates from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) suggest that gross mortgage lending reached £13.4 billion in February.
This is 9% down on both January and on last February, in both of which months £14.8 billion was advanced. This is the lowest monthly estimate for gross mortgage lending since April 2013 when lending totalled £12.4 billion.
Bob Pannell, the CML’s chief economist, said: “Earlier soft approvals data meant that weaker February lending has not come as a surprise. Seasonal factors tend to weigh on activity at the start of the year, but looking through these, the underlying picture appears to be stabilising.
“We expect lending to improve in the coming months, as employment and earnings continue to pick up and the impact of recent stamp duty reforms start to feed through.”
Andy Knee, chief executive of LMS, added: “During an ordinary February, the lull in mortgage lending could be shrugged off as seasonality, but in this case, it’s disappointing that we’re not seeing a pick-up in lending given we’re just weeks away from pension freedoms day. With access to their pension pots, there is a strong possibility the silver pound will look to invest their pension in buy-to-let properties, which could put a further strain on first-time buyer prospects of fulfilling their aspirations of home ownership.
“Gross mortgage lending trails behind last month and is indicative of the struggle that many hopeful buyers still face in purchasing a home be they existing home owners or new buyers. The Chancellor’s announcement yesterday of a Help to Buy ISA provides some much needed support for first-time buyers, but fails to address the problem at the crux of the issue: a lack of supply.
“For those hoping to take out a mortgage the current low base rate offers some excellent opportunities but while this looks set to remain at 0.5% for a while yet, it’s important to remember that the mortgage market’s temperature is not solely dependent on base rates. Swap rates, another determinant, have been on the rise since the beginning of the year and banks are starting to pull some of the record low mortgage offers that have been driving fresh demand.
“For those with plans to remortgage, recent months have shown them to be savvier, taking advantage of competitive rates and tackling their finances early on in the year. However, borrowers that are considering remortgaging but waiting for even better deals or for rates to drop further should exercise a level of caution before delaying plans too far. As competitive rates become less readily available or interest-rates eventually rise we anticipate a flurry of activity to fix.”
