London could see up to 570,000 new homes being built over the next decade, more than enough to house its growing population, according to new research covering every single one of the capital’s 625 local ward areas, from specialist London estate agents Stirling Ackroyd.
As London’s population grows by an estimated 920,000 people between 2014 and 2024, Stirling Ackroyd analysis shows this will require the creation of 570,000 new homes. Yet London is able to provide enough extra homes by redeveloping just 1.3% of the capital’s land area on average, while preserving all green space, it believes.
Andrew Bridges, managing director of Stirling Ackroyd, said: “London can build the extra space required to house its own rapid success.
“To keep up with a growing population these opportunities are likely to become reality over the next 10 years. Even a cautious projection puts the capital’s population at nine million before 2020, and half a decade before that landmark the city already needs more homes. Yet this level of development is not impossible or even unlikely. It’s already starting.”
Top of all 625 ward areas is Southwark’s Chaucer area, adjoining The Shard and between Borough and Elephant & Castle tube stations. Development here is likely to provide 2,870 homes per km2 or 2,290 homes in absolute terms.
This is followed by Tower Hamlets’ Shadwell ward, situated between Tower Hill and Limehouse DLR stations, which could add 2,630 homes per square kilometre – or in absolute terms approximately the same figure of 2,630 homes.
The third area of densest opportunity is Islington’s Bunhill ward, adjacent to Clerkenwell and just north of the City of London, which has potential for 2,600 extra homes for every square kilometre, or a total of 2,860 homes within the ward.
In London’s top ten such hotspots these locations are followed by: Hoxton, Bromley-by-Bow, Southwark Riverside, Limehouse, Wapping, St. Pancras and Spitalfields wards. All have potential for at least 1,650 further homes for every square kilometre.
Just these top ten locations could provide a total of 23,000 new homes (4.1% of the total for Greater London), while the top five alone have potential for 12,200 homes (or 2.2% of all likely new homes in the capital).
Bridges said: “New homes hotspots are constantly evolving, and it is likely that in time developers will move from the top 10 areas identified here to the top twenty – and beyond.
“Bigger trends are also clear. London’s heart and soul is gradually shifting eastwards – not as any other location declines but as the entire city grows in the direction of maximum opportunity.
“The City fringes are generating jobs, and these areas have grown ripe with opportunity for London’s new homes industry. Regeneration is vital for London to maintain its growth and status as a world city – while also bringing new status, new wealth and new opportunities to neighbourhoods that were previously only observers in London’s spectacular show of economic growth.”
Larger wards, while generally expected to see fewer new homes in a given area, are host to a greater number of hectares likely to see redevelopment, and hence a larger total number of potential homes within their boundaries.
By this measure, with space for 5,620 new homes, the ward of Stratford & New Town leads all 625 ward areas when measured in absolute terms, due to its 15.7 total hectares that could see residential development. This is despite Stratford coming 20th when ranked by the potential number of new homes per square kilometre.