‘Slightly positive’ outlook for house prices over 2013

Houses

The average price paid for a house in December was £12 lower than that paid in November, so in effect has not changed for the last two months, according to the latest house price index from LSL Property Services/Acadametrics England & Wales.

Over the 12 months of 2012 the average price of properties sold in England & Wales has risen by just over £7,100, up by 3.2%.

However it has been a year of two halves: in the first six months of the year the index rose cumulatively by a rounded 3.2%, whereas in the last six months the index has remained flat at 0.0% on the same basis.

Dr Peter Williams, chairman of Acadametrics, said: “Over the last 12 months average house prices in England & Wales have risen by 3.2%, roughly in line with the annual rate of inflation (3% in November). Given that the annual rate of house price inflation was negative for the last eight months of 2011, the positive movement in prices in 2012 does suggest a modest turnaround in what might be considered the real housing market.

“The LSL Acadametrics index gives a slightly more positive view of the market than the narrower mortgage-based indices, which exclude cash transactions and are based on a defined hypothetical ‘typical’ home. This reflects the fact that the LSL Acadametrics index is based instead on actual sale prices and includes cash transactions. With a substantial shortage of mortgages, cash accounts for some 35% of sales and is more significant than this in specified sub-markets, i.e. at both the top and the bottom price brackets.

“Although awareness of the differences between indices is growing, the fact that the lender indices dominate media commentary on the market is not always helpful, given the data limitations. Although both end the year reporting negative price trends, their outlook for 2013 is slightly more positive favouring flat or stable prices for the coming year.”

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