September begins and it is likely to be one of the more interesting months for the conveyancing sector and the wider housing/mortgage market in general.
Of course, that ‘interesting’ tag arises from the end of the partial stamp duty holiday period which finishes with the last day of September and is likely to coincide with a spike in completions, as purchasers seek to secure some tax savings, albeit not anywhere near the level achievable back pre-June.
In a way, you could see the government’s decision to taper the stamp duty holiday as a sop to those who wouldn’t be able to complete pre-June, although we can’t yet be certain what overall impact it will have on transaction levels.
The proof of that particular pudding will be seen during September albeit only at the £250k stamp duty threshold and not the £500k that was offered from July last year through to the end of June this.
In a way, while there of course will be interest in whether a further surge of completions happens through September, what we are all truly waiting for is that post-September period, and whether a great surge of transactions has been brought forward meaning a significant drop off in Q4 2021 and beyond.
For my own part, I’m wondering whether anyone who has come to market in the last couple of months hoping to complete prior to September, will have truly believed such a process could have been possible anyway.
We’ve all been acutely aware that property marketing to completion has been taking over 20 weeks during the last year. I suspect that figure will now have dropped slightly, but even so, the anticipation should surely have been that a pre-September completion would never have been set in stone, and that extra stamp duty monies may have needed to be found if it couldn’t be achieved.
A lot is being made of the significant drop off in residential housing transactions that took place between June and July this year, but that was always going to be the case. It now looks likely that we’ll see a relatively small surge in September, and then we will have a number of months where the housing market returns to more normal levels.
So, from that perspective, October is likely to see a drop-off from September, although I’m not anticipating it will be anything like we had in June/July, and then from that point we should be returning to more ‘normal’ activity levels, albeit fuelled by somewhat different drivers to the last time we had a ‘normal’ end of year period.
As has been repeatedly pointed out, there is still a large degree of demand within the UK housing market. Conversations and questions are still going to be raised in large numbers of households about whether they are in the right home for a changing work/life balance. And, if not, what are the options available?
I’m also convinced that a post-furlough period will provide households with a much clearer idea of their job prospects, particularly in those industries which have borne a significant brunt over the course of the last 18 months. Are those jobs going to be viable without ongoing government support and intervention? And if not, what might that mean for the current housing situation?
None of us have a crystal ball to gaze into and view what Q4 2021 will be like, but the signs appear to show a more subdued three-month period, as people weigh up what their housing options are, what works for them, and what doesn’t.
We do know that 2021 is likely to see well over one million residential property transactions. Including July’s figures it was close to a million already, so taking the year as a whole it looks likely to have been a good one for all property stakeholders.
The important point now is to continue to take all the opportunities afforded to us – conveyancing included. Client needs will not change, even if post-September the market does begin to settle into a more predictable pattern of activity.
Mark Snape is CEO of Broker Conveyancing