There really is only one place to start and that’s of course Theresa May’s decision to hold a ‘snap election’ in June – we might have thought early general elections were a thing of the past given the Fixed Parliament Act, but as Snap! themselves might have put it, ‘She’s (apparently) got the power’. Especially when supported by most of the other parties who were looking down the barrel of a further three-year wait for the polls to open.
Political commentators who are far more savvy than myself will have come up with hundreds of reasons why this decision has been taken – from a cynical attempt to take advantage of favourable polling, to curbing the power of her back-benchers, to strengthening her hand in the Brexit negotiations. I suspect that you can probably throw in some other underlying reasons as well into the mix about why the Prime Minister feels now is the time to put her political credentials on the line.
Of course, all of the above outcomes are predicated on the Conservative Party not just winning the election but coming back with a strengthened majority. As I glanced at the news networks this week, some opinion-formers were suggesting May would be looking for a majority of at least 100, which would clearly be some feat especially if the SNP are able to hang on to their overwhelming majority in Scotland.
There’s no doubting that there will be some fearful Labour MPs who are not convinced of their capacity to win on June 8th because of the schism that does appear to exist between many of them and their leadership. Add in the potential for a re-invigorated Liberal Democrat campaign focused on being the ‘anti-Brexit’ party, plus of course what might happen to UKIP’s votes and it is possible that Labour could find itself squeezed, even in some of its heartlands.
Whatever the opinion polls currently say, the uncertainty that comes with any General Election is still tangible in 2017, and Theresa May will know that whilst this might be seen as a calculated gamble, the results might not go the way of perceived convention. We only need look at how the polls got it wrong two years ago, plus add in the EU referendum and the US presidential election, to see that it would be best to urge caution about ‘landslides’ even if the quality of the Opposition might not appear to be up to scratch.
What this General Election campaign however does mean for our industry is another period of uncertainty, and history tells us that elections/referendums (certainly in the very recent past) tend to slow the housing market down even further as people bide their time waiting to see who comes out on top. While this will undoubtedly be a predominantly ‘Brexit-focused election’ I do however believe housing, and political attempts to fix our ‘broken market’, will figure highly within the campaigns.
Certainly, the Government’s White Paper contains plenty of potential manifesto commitments for the Conservative Party, and it seems likely that Jeremy Corbyn will want to focus heavily on affordable housing, plus rent caps, potentially more curbs on private landlords, and one would suspect, attempts to get Councils building more homes. All other parties will also need to tackle the chronic shortage of new-build homes, and I suspect given the media furore around new-build leaseholds, there will be plenty who wish to see this practice banned outright. The Conservatives included if we are to believe the mood music emanating from the current Housing Minister.
And that is also a consideration for housing market stakeholders. Elections, even if won by the incumbents, tend to be proceeded by Cabinet reshuffles. So, we might find that barely a year since Theresa May took the reins, our market could find itself with yet another Housing Minster to follow in the footsteps of the many that have come before Gavin Barwell in such a short space of time.
In that sense, it simply adds to the uncertainty and the instability we are currently having to deal with. For the housing market one can’t help feel that we could do without an election but we can’t always get what we want, and for those hoping for something of a resurgence in activity, I’m afraid we could be waiting a while longer.
Pad Bamford is business development director at AmTrust Mortgage Insurance