The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) has estimated that gross mortgage lending totalled £17.9 billion in January.
This is 9% lower than December’s lending total of £19.8 billion, but 21% higher than the £14.8 billion lent in January last year. This is the highest lending total for a January since 2008 (£25.2 billion).
Mohammad Jamei, CML economist, said: “Lending started the year on a positive note. Our monthly estimate is 21% higher than a year ago, with the current growth rate in lending similar to the closing months of 2015.
“UK market fundamentals are helping to underpin this recovery, with real wage growth, an improving labour market, competitive mortgage deals, and government schemes all supporting household demand. We still only see limited upside potential going forwards, as the number of properties for sale on the market remains low and affordability pressures weigh on activity. Upcoming tax changes in the buy-to-let sector are adding an element of uncertainty to the market.”
“A sluggish start to 2016 tells us more about a seasonal lull in buyer activity at the end of last year, than it does about any long term indication of the market’s health,” said John Eastgate, sales and marketing director at OneSavings Bank.
“Conditions for mortgage borrowers are, if anything, likely to improve, with the prospect of interest rate rises pushed further out thanks to the economic uncertainty that has plagued markets since January. On top of that, we have moderating house price inflation and strong employment data. The caveat is that we still need to see more on the supply side; house sales are a third lower than their pre-crash levels and we still fail to build enough.”
