HMRC’s provisionally non-seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in June 2022 is 96,290, 55.1% lower than June 2021 and 3.1% lower than May 2022.
Its estimate of UK non-residential transactions is 8,850, 24.3% lower than June 2021 and 9.5% lower than May 2022.
Meanwhile, its provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in June 2022 is 95,420, 54.3% lower than June 2021 and 7.9% lower than May 2022.
HMRC’s seasonally adjusted estimate of UK non-residential transactions in June 2022 is 9,110, 21.9% lower than June 2021 and 11.6% lower than May 2022.
Charlotte Nixon, mortgage spokesperson at Quilter, said: “UK monthly property transactions have slowed dramatically in comparison to the rapid pace witnessed in June last year when the first stage of the stamp duty holiday was withdrawn, and they now sit even lower than pre-pandemic levels. With the cost-of-living crisis now weighing heavily on people’s finances, we may be witnessing the start of the long-awaited slowdown.
“The adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in June is 95,420, 54.3% lower than June 2021 and 7.9% lower than May 2022. In comparison to pre-pandemic levels, June 2022 saw transactions dip below 100,000 for the first time since June 2013 – excluding the 2020 anomaly – suggesting the wind has finally been knocked out of the sails of the housing market.
“A dip in the market has been anticipated for a long while now, with those hoping to get a foot on the ladder holding out for a subsequent fall in house prices. Up until now the major global events we have experienced in recent times have done little to stunt its progress and the market continually defied expectations with growing prices and sky-high transaction levels. However, the cost-of-living crisis appears to have finally taken its toll and this month’s fall in property transactions could mark the beginning of the end for the rampant market environment we have seen for the past couple of years.
“With inflation now sitting at 9.4%, the Bank of England is expected to hike rates further at its next monetary policy meeting which will push mortgage rates even higher than their already elevated state. Soaring inflation, the rising cost of living, high energy bills which will increase even further later in the year and minimal government support mean the cost-of-living crisis has fast become a major financial burden for many people. With wages failing to keep up, the high costs of moving home will put off prospective buyers and we could see an even greater slowdown in the coming months.
“The UK continues to face a severe financial problem and the housing market faces its biggest challenge yet as the cost-of-living crisis takes hold.”
