Demand from prospective house buyers fell in May 2022, a potential side effect of the rising cost of living and higher interest rates, although house prices in the short-term are expected to rise, according to the latest UK Residential Market Survey (May), from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).
Respondents reported that new buyer enquiries had fallen in May, with a net balance of -7%, down from much more positive sentiment in April (net balance +8%). Some respondents put this down to some buyers tightening their belts as the cost of living begins to have an effect, and May’s result brings to an end eight consecutive positive results for new buyer enquiries.
As such, the volume of agreed sales saw little change, with a flat picture reported. Sales expectations over the next three months are also predicted to be flat, (net balance +1%) from a rosier picture in April (net balance +10%). Looking over the next twelve months, expectations are that sales are set to decline with a net balance of -24% respondents commenting that they foresaw sales declining (down from -4% in April).
New instructions to sell homes were also largely flat during May, and there seems to be little respite for lack of supply in the future, with respondents citing the weakest picture since December 2021 for new / requested market appraisals. This suggests there is little prospect of more homes coming onto the market in the immediate future, RICS said.
Given constrained supply, house prices continue to rise. A net balance of +73% of contributors reported an increase in house price during May. Broken down, all parts of the UK continue to see increasing prices, with growth exceptionally strong in Northern Ireland, Northern England and Wales.
Looking ahead, 12-month price expectations did ease at the UK level for a third successive month. Although a net balance of +42% of survey participants still envisage house prices being higher in a year’s time, this is down from +78% in February and is the most moderate reading seen since January 2021. However, 12-month price expectations remain positive across all parts of the UK at this stage.
In the lettings market, tenant demand continues to rise firmly according to a net balance of +48% of contributors – the same as in April. At the same time, landlord instructions continue to decline, with the latest net balance coming in at -13% following a reading of -16% seen previously. As a result, rental growth expectations over the next three remain elevated, returning a net balance of +58% in May.
Simon Rubinsohn, RICS’ chief economist, said: “The increase in the cost of mortgage finance alongside growing concerns about the economic outlook is unsurprisingly having an impact, albeit a relatively modest one at this point, on buyer activity in the sales market.
“Despite this, prices are viewed as likely to remain resilient into 2023. But as is often the case in these circumstances, the pressure is likely to felt more visibly in transaction levels which are seen as likely to slow as the year wears on.”
“Meanwhile, what is particularly striking in the latest RICS survey is both the current and anticipated strength in the rental market. New instructions of property to let continue to fall according to respondents to the survey while demand is still very strong leading to rental levels being bid higher and greater challenges for tenants who aren’t in the position to compete for the available stock.”
Steve Griffiths, sales director at The Mortgage Lender, added: “While we’ve previously seen the UK housing sector defy the odds, demand is now starting to slow. With the rising cost of living and the Bank of England poised to raise rates further this year a slowdown is now on the cards.
“For those still keen to buy this year or re-mortgage, locking in a cheap rate will be a priority. For those where home ownership is further down the line, ensuring that current financial pressures don’t impact future aspirations will be key. Products like buy now pay later can seem like good deals but can often impact credit scores and lead to difficulties getting a mortgage. For those with blips on their credit score, there are still options available, speaking with a broker will ensure you can still find a suitable product.”
