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Scotland says No: markets to rally

by Kevin Rose
19 September 2014
Small businesses should appeal lending rejection
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The referendum on Scottish independence has resulted in victory for the No campaign.

While all the votes have not yet been declared, predictions are that the Better Together campaign has prevailed with 55% of the vote.

Tom Elliott, international investment strategist at deVere Group, said: “UK financial markets will rally on relief that it is ‘back to normal.’ The possibility of an imminent major upheaval is now over.

“The risk that the UK would inherit Scotland’s share of the national debt, but without the income coming from oil, risked pushing the debt/GDP ratio and current account deficit into dangerous territory. This is what had been weighing on sterling.

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“After an initial rally today, I suspect that in the near-term there will be little repercussions from events over the past two weeks on the UK economy.

“Despite it being ‘neck and neck’ up to the vote, there would now need to be a major increase in political uncertainty for the economy to be significantly impacted – and this is, for now at least, unlikely.

“That said, the support of the younger voters for the ‘Yes’ campaign suggests that demography is not on the side of the union.

“However, if oil prices weaken over the long-term due to alternative energy and oversupply, federalism wins over converts from the Yes campaign, and Alex Salmond retires from politics, the independence question may go to sleep for a long time.”

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